Expertise
Aviation decarbonisation is often framed as a long-term ambition, but delivery has now become the critical global challenge.
Global air travel is projected to more than double between 2024 and 2050. Over the same period the aviation sector will need to abate approximately 1.8 gigatonnes of CO₂ annually to accommodate growing demand while meeting net zero commitments. This gap between growth and emissions reduction is structural. It cannot be closed by fleet renewal or operational efficiency alone and requires solutions that can be deployed at scale within existing aircraft and fuel systems.
Why sustainable aviation fuel matters now
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has emerged as the most viable near-term pathway for aviation decarbonisation because, unlike alternative propulsion technologies, SAF can be used within current aircraft, engines and fuel infrastructure, enabling immediate emissions reduction without disrupting global aviation systems.
While SAF has been discussed for almost two decades, its role has expanded. It is no longer driven solely by environmental objectives but increasingly by energy security and fuel supply resilience, particularly in the context of geopolitical volatility and fuel price uncertainty.
Despite this momentum, SAF continues to command a significant premium over conventional Jet A‑1 fuel. Current pricing is typically two to five times higher, depending on feedstock, technology pathway and geography. As a result, widespread adoption remains highly dependent on policy mechanisms such as blending mandates, carbon pricing, incentives and long-term offtake structures.
Globally, clearer demand signals are now taking shape. Regulatory frameworks and national mandates are acting as push factors, while incentives and public commitments are creating pull.
In Europe, the ReFuelEU Aviation initiative mandates a SAF blend of approximately 2 percent from 2025, rising progressively to 70 percent by 2050. Other jurisdictions are following with similar approaches aligned to International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) frameworks. Transparency around feedstock pricing, cost of production and project economics is also becoming a decisive factor for investors and financiers, shaping capital allocation and deployment strategies.
Technology pathways and delivery risk
Today, the majority of SAF projects that have reached final investment decision are based on the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway, supported by mature technology, established American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) certification and availability of waste oil and lipid-based feedstocks. HEFA is expected to dominate deployment over the next five years.
However, reliance on a single pathway introduces long-term risk, so alternative technologies offer important diversification opportunities, including:
- Alcohol to Jet and Fischer Tropsch pathways enable the use of agricultural residues, municipal solid waste and forestry byproducts, increasing feedstock resilience and scalability.
- Alcohol to Jet hub and spoke models allow upstream alcohol production across distributed locations with centralised conversion, improving supply flexibility and reducing exposure to localised disruptions.
- Power to Liquid synthetic fuels offer deep decarbonisation potential but are highly electricity intensive and constrained by access to low cost renewable power and flexible grids.
All pathways currently face ASTM blend limits of 50 percent, with work underway to enable higher blends and fully formulated fuels. These technical and regulatory realities must be incorporated early in project design.
Certification introduces additional complexity that directly influences engineering decisions. Technical certification under ASTM D7566 ensures engine compatibility, while sustainability certification through schemes such as ISCC, CORSIA and Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB), validates lifecycle emissions performance, traceability and sustainability compliance. Without these certifications, SAF cannot enter the aviation fuel market.
Logistics and blending considerations are equally critical. Decisions around co‑processing in conventional refineries versus dedicated biofuel facilities with downstream terminal blending have direct implications for storage, segregation, quality assurance and airport integration. Engineering design that integrates logistics and blending requirements from the outset significantly reduces delivery and operational risk.
ASEAN’s strategic role in the SAF transition
ASEAN plays a strategically important role in the global SAF landscape, with several countries in the region announcing national targets in recent years.
Singapore has introduced a SAF levy from 2026 that will rise through the next decade, while Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines have also announced blending targets or policy intentions extending to 2030 and beyond.
Critically, approximately 65 percent of unconstrained global SAF feedstock potential is located in ASEAN and Australia, largely in the form of agricultural residues, forestry waste and municipal solid waste, creating a strong supply side foundation for scaled production.
In Southeast Asia, near term deployment is expected to be dominated by HEFA due to abundant oil-based feedstocks and technology maturity, while medium to long-term growth is expected to be driven by agricultural residues via cellulosic ethanol, gasification and Fischer Tropsch pathways.
Electro fuels may provide future renewable energy export opportunities for countries with strong renewable endowments, although techno-economic feasibility remains sensitive to rising electricity demand from other sectors, including data centres.
Recent SJ Group project delivery experience highlights the practical realities of scaling SAF, including a 350,000 tonne per annum biofuel production facility in Johor, Malaysia, which produces SAF, Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil and Bio Naphtha using waste derived feedstocks such as used cooking oil and palm oil mill effluent. Despite a highly compressed engineering and procurement schedule, the project was successfully commissioned through:
- A robust feedstock strategy accounting for quality variability, seasonality and logistics.
- Early alignment with sustainability certification and lifecycle carbon assessment.
- Integrated design of offsite systems, blending and logistics to manage downstream risk.
- Strong programme and interface management across multiple contractors.
The project demonstrates that, while SAF technologies may be well understood, delivery complexity often lies in coordination, integration and governance.
*AI-generated image of SAF plant for illustration purposes
Engineering as the enabler of scale
Ultimately, the transition from ambition to delivery will be defined by engineering capability, particularly in the early stages where decisions have the greatest leverage on cost, schedule and risk.
Early-stage engineering reduces risk through integrated analysis of feedstock availability, sustainability performance, logistics, economics and policy alignment, supported by core capabilities such as techno- economic assessment, lifecycle carbon analysis, process integration and programme management that underpin operational reliability and financial viability.
To decarbonise aviation at scale, the sector will need more than commitment, with disciplined engineering, strong project governance and collaboration across policymakers, producers, airlines and financiers all required to translate targets into bankable, deliverable projects.
Sustainable aviation fuel can deliver meaningful emissions reductions today, but only if ambition is matched by execution.
Beyond Green: Balancing Renewable Energy Development with Biodiversity Protection
As the world pushes toward net-zero targets, the development of renewable energy infrastructure is a critical part of the solution. In Australia, renewables supplied 40% of the country’s total electricity in 2023, an increase of almost 10% in a single year.
Bringing Renewables to Life: Balancing Progress and Preservation
In this series, we share how our team is unlocking a smoother pathway for approvals, community engagement and environmental planning for many of our renewable energy clients around the world.
Decoding Green Hydrogen: Advanced Methodologies and Modelling for Sustainable Energy Solutions
This paper presents a comprehensive methodology for designing and modelling Green Hydrogen Systems developed by Surbana Jurong (SJ) and SMEC, known as S2H2. The methodology integrates traditional systems engineering with innovative elements to optimise performance, reliability, and sustainability across the entire project lifecycle.
Ready
to
connect?
Talk to one of our global specialists about our Energy & Renewables solutions.